The Oscars.

Just invoking the name imparts a sense of majesty. Do you feel it? The majesty? I know I feel more majestic.

The Oscars.

Confession: I love the Oscars. They are generally frowned upon by the smarter critics and other film commentators, but there’s a little-boy part of me that Wants to Believe. That little boy doesn’t give a fart about who’s wearing what, who’s sitting where, or what the after-parties are like; never have, never will. But that little boy – okay, just me now – does want to believe the Oscars mean something. Sure, it’s a big back-patting festival, and we are reminded that award season is nothing but a gross display of self-satisfaction… though no one seems to complain when film festivals do the same thing. Curious, that.

But I want to believe they matter. Okay, it’s most likely true that the only people it matters to are the studios, who get to slap an Oscar statue on their advertisements and give the editors at Variety a nice little bonus by buying out “gee aren’t we swell” full-page ads touting, with all humility, their award-winning progeny. For smaller studios, the nomination can give their beloved pet films much-needed publicity and even fresh screens in new markets.

It’s also true that the winner of Best Picture every year is not, to be kind, the actual best picture of the year. Chances are the winner isn’t even the best picture that came out that weekend.

And yet…

And yet I watch, every year. Every dumb Best Song performance (sans the South Park one – good times, that), every lame joke, it all flies by. I have been known to write out my predictions on a dry-erase board and tick them off with check marks or X’s, depending on how I do. No, really.

That’s the other thing: The predictions. I’ve never been much of a gambler and I don’t particularly care for all the tortured mathematics people concoct to guess who’ll win. Nothing makes my eyes glaze over like discussion about “split votes” and “compensation awards” and “what the Golden Globes mean” (answer, in all situations: Nothing at all) from people who have likely never been within 1,000 feet of an Oscar screener. In short, I don’t try to “game” the predictions. I just go with my gut.

Which is what I’m going to do now, and more importantly, what I want you to do. You see, I’m bringing back an old favorite of mine: the OSCAR OSCAR REVOLUTION Giveaway. You, like me, will pick your winners in the top 11 categories (listed below) and e-mail them to me. The person who gets the most guesses right gets the (currently in print) Criterion Collection DVD of their choice. If there’s any ties, then all the winners get a DVD, because that’s how I roll. Check out my picks – divided up among “Who Will Win,” “Who Should Win,” and, where applicable, “I Will Burn Down the Kodak Theater if This Person/Film Wins”—and then send your own picks in to . Entries will be taken until 7pm EST, February 24th.

You got that? With list in hand, we begin:

BEST PICTURE: You know, there’s not a stinker in the bunch. Okay, I take that back: the very trailer for Atonement kind of makes me want to die, as if the movie itself were constructed from Anti-Ken Particles. It is so very serious and, if you believe quite a few reliable sources, obvious and obnoxious Oscar bait. But the rest are just jim-dandy, even if throwing in Juno seems like a joke, or maybe a bone thrown to people under the age of 35.
What Will Win: There Will Be Blood
What Should Win: No Country for Old Men

BEST ACTOR: Also a strong category this year, though In the Valley of Elah was dreadfully serious and, we hope, a final and lasting testament to Paul Haggis’s dime store Clint Eastwood imitation. Viggo doesn’t have a prayer, despite turning in perhaps the finest performance of his career. Javier Bardem should be here for playing Anton Chigurh; every frame he’s not in is haunted by him. And where’s Casey Affleck for Gone Baby Gone? Or, for god’s sake, Chris Cooper’s career-defining performance in Breach?
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Who Should Win: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

BEST ACTRESS: If you’re wondering why people always complain that there aren’t enough quality roles for women, look no further. Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth: The Golden Age? Seriously? That movie was like a farce, and this is coming from the guy who still thinks she got robbed for not winning the Oscar the first time she took that role. Better choice: Tabu, from The Namesake. Or Emily Mortimer in Lars and the Real Girl. Or Marketa Irglova from Once. Or the various voice actresses as Marjane Satrapi in Persepolis. Oh, right, we can’t let the animated people weasel their way into the “real” categories…
Who Will Win: Ellen Page, Juno
Who Should Win: Laura Linney, The Savages. Really, they can’t give her enough awards.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Oh, so there’s Casey Affleck. He and brother Ben are the revelations of the year, but that’s not going to do a lot for them. This is Javier Bardem’s show from beginning to end, and this is the safest category in the 11.
Who Will Win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: Same
I Will Burn Down the Kodak Theater If He Wins: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War. Rare is the Hoffman role in which we’re not aware that he is Acting, and it doesn’t help that his lines are all “sharp” in the way that Aaron Sorkin dialog is sharp (which is to say it’s cute), and that he dresses like he stepped out of Central Casting, 1978. I’ve made my problems with Charlie Wilson’s War’s artifice known, and frankly none of the players deserve the nod.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Would also seem to be a gimme, but this category always screws me. But I’ll stick with the safe and smart bet. The rest, well… enjoy your gift baskets, ladies.
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Who Should Win: Same

BEST DIRECTOR: Also a pretty solid showing, though I notice Atonement‘s Joe Wright isn’t mingling with his Best Picture buddies here. If P.T. Anderson gets the Best Picture for his film, then the Coens get the Best Director nod because holy hell. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a complete sensory experience brought to life, nor their considerable visual talents put to such good use. That has to be worth something, right?
Who Will Win: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Who Should Win: Same.
I Will Burn Down the Kodak Theater If He Wins: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Oh man, who told this guy all those POV shots were a good idea? That person should be shot.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: So I’m guessing that, on the whole, we’re not crazy about the current administration? For sheer virtuosity we have to give it up to No End in Sight, a sober and quietly furious examination of absolutely everything that went wrong and got our dumb asses in Iraq. Taxi to the Dark Side could be the sneaky one, but I haven’t seen it, so it doesn’t count. (Just kidding.)
What Will Win: No End in Sight
What Should Win: No End in Sight, probably

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: The existence of this category bugs me. I’ve asked before, and I’ll ask again: Does this Oscar award the best use of animation in a film, or the best film that happens to be animated? The distinction may seem a fine one, but it actually matters quite a bit when comparing the only two serious contenders: Ratatouille and Persepolis. They are both fine films, but only in a category defined by its medium (animation) do they belong side by side. This begs another, slightly more cynical question: Does this category exist to ensure animated films get their due, or to make sure they never compete with “real” movies?
Who Will Win: Ratatouille
Who Should Win: Persepolis

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Others have articulated The Rage better, but the exclusion of Once, Persepolis and 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days – the three foreign films that appeared on almost every top 10 list worth a damn in 2007 – is the clearest and gravest mistake in Oscar history in some time. I try not to use the word often as it smacks of fan wankery, but here if fits: That is shameful. Mark Johnson, chair of the FLF category, is looking to change how his category’s nominees are picked, but for now we have Persepolis moved to a category it has little chance of winning, and 4 Months denied its shot at a profile-enhancing nomination. Once gets a single nomination for Best Song, for which it may not even be eligible. Good one, guys.
What Will Win: Uh, let’s say Mongol
What Should Win: See above.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: A strong showing, but please don’t get me started on Diablo Cody – there aren’t enough entries in the Thesaurus under “trite” to cover her. She is every eager-to-please hipster I’ve spent my adult life avoiding wrapped into one person, and her script is like being trapped in a room with 10 of her for 90 minutes. The rest I have no complaints with, though my absolute favorite has no chance in hell of winning. Ever. I hope I just jinxed myself.
Who Will Win: Diablo Cody, Juno
Who Should Win: Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
I Will Burn Down the Kodak Theater If She Wins: Diablo Cody, Juno. I guess we’re in for a crispy night.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Confession: I have not seen Sarah Polley’s Away From Her, despite my great admiration for her talent. Nor have I read the source material for any of the nominees, so I suppose I just have to go on the strength of the existing script… which I tend not to read either, so I guess we’re going with what’s on the screen. Why, hello! We seem to be back in Best Picture territory! Except different folks will win this time. Don’t question me; it’s Science.
Who Will Win: Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

And that, as they say, is that. Remember to go here to check out the list of nominees and pick your winners for these 11 categories, then send your ballot in to . The day after the Glorious Gala I’ll post the totals, and make with the DVD prize. It will be… dare I say it…

Majestic.